The Right Should Vote Likud

The Israeli election is a referendum on the withdrawal from more territory in the face of Hamas' genocidal plans. A "yes" vote could be cast for either Kadima or Labor with no distinction whatsoever. An effective "no" vote in the complex coalition system, however, requires extraordinary game theory powers. Fortunately, Evelyn Gordon, Israel's finest political analyst, has put her Princeton Physics education to good use in this excellent, although arguable, piece (for Israelis only):

The upcoming elections are clearly crucial for anyone who opposes another unilateral withdrawal. Yet not any vote for a rightist party is an equally effective vote against withdrawal. In fact, anyone serious about preventing the pullout has only one realistic option: Likud.

There are several reasons for this. First, the only surefire way to prevent the withdrawal is if the Likud rather than Kadima forms the next government, and that requires the Likud to win enough seats to be a viable candidate....

Second, even if Kadima forms the government, some of its likely coalition partners, such as Shas, might still be persuaded to oppose the pullout itself....

Purists, of course, also have another argument: the Likud must be punished for the disengagement. That, however, is patently ridiculous: Since most pullout supporters have quit Likud for Kadima, "punishing the Likud" actually means punishing the very MKs who opposed the withdrawal!

Update: Her prediction about the UTJ party has apparently already come true: Hareidi UTJ Party Hints: We Will Join Kadima Government

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Posted by Barak at 19:12 | Comments (2) | Trackbacks (2)

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Netanyahu, Shalom, Livnat and others let the Disengagement happen. Therefore there it is possible that the Likud will 1) join a Kadima government, 2) invite Kadima into its government or 3) make withdrawals from territory all by itself. Only a strong showing for the Right and Religious bloc in general and for parties to the right of the Likud in particular is likely to prevent further withdrawals.

#1 Sam on 2006-03-23 20:10 (Reply)

I disagree with you, Barak, and agree with Sam on the Likud. The Likud central committee was packed by Omri Sharon as his parting gift before he left for Kadima and then jail. Therefore there were no primaries for the Knesset list, Manhigut Yehudit was frozen out of the list, and the pro-disengagement members were placed at the top of the Likud list. I suggest that the religious/right parties, led by the NU, approach Labor as a coalition partner on the basis of the social agenda (large family benefits, education, expellee rights) and no further withdrawals without an agreement with the Arabs, clearly promulgated in Arabic, and a clear response to violations.

#1.1 Yehoshua Friedman (Link) on 2006-03-26 15:23 (Reply)

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