Prediction: Kadima will Underperform

Here's my election prediction: the conventional wisdom, confirmed in every survey, is wrong. Kadima's poll numbers are inflated.

This is my most speculative prediction so far because I have no real evidence. The logic, however, suddenly hit me. Israelis are basically right-wing on security, despite the deceptions of the left-wing media. The undecided vote has been large primarily because many right-wingers are undecided about how to vote against the withdrawal. It is complicated to vote right-wing this time. Voting for a unilateral withdrawal requires voting for Kadima. Voting against appeasing Hamas requires sophisticated game-theory analysis. A significant faction in the Likud, for example, is pro-withdrawal.

Additionally, Kadima is based on corruption at the highest levels and has a banana republic-like level of comfort with obvious deceptions. It has that hubris because the mainstream media (both local and international) are Kadima partisans in their eagerness to support the party of "unilateral withdrawal." Pollsters can swing elections, and have probably given in to that temptation to mislead. Kadima's ability to make corrupt, quid pro quo deals has been entirely based on their inflated poll numbers. The pollsters may have believed that they were able to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even Kadima's opponents have not attacked strongly, believing in a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" strategy of pulling their punches to prepare for the possibility of joining a future Kadima coalition.

Of course, the main support for this cynical speculation is Kadima's track record of deceptions, not hard evidence. A real danger is that such cynicism will become ubiquitous should Kadima win.