Israel Votes: Continuous IRIS Coverage

This is Israel's most consequential election ever. Should Israel respond to the Hamas victory with another unilateral pullout, from the strategic high ground of the West Bank, as Ehud Olmert's Kadima has indicated it will do?

This entry will be continually updated with ongoing reporting, with an effort to provide perspective and separate the consequential from trivial distractions.

(6:29) IRIS Election Prediction Confirmed: Kadima Underperforms Polls by 32%
While I did not make a prediction about the overall election, I did predict that Kadima would underperform the pre-election polls. Kadima was surveyed to receive 37 seats just prior to the election (down from a high of 42). Kadima ended up with 28, which is 32% less than predicted.

(6:11 am) 99.67% of Votes Counted: 69 Left/Arab; 51 Right/Religious
Kadima: 28, Labor: 20, Shas: 13, Israel Our Home: 12, Likud: 11, Pensioners: 7, National Union-NRP: 9, United Torah Judaism: 6, Meretz: 4, Balad: 3, Hadash: 3, United Arab List: 4

Another way of breaking down the voting blocks:

Arabs (Balad: 3, Hadash: 3, United Arab List 4): 10
Left (Kadima, Labor, Meretz): 52
Unknown (Pensioners): 7
Right + Religious (Shas, Likud, Israel Beitenu, NRP/NU, UTJ): 51

An interesting caveat is that Ehud Olmert's Kadima party has failed to win a "Jewish majority" for his withdrawal plans, even if the Pensioners party is considered part of the Left. Olmert previously announced he will not bring the Arab parties into his government. Though these parties can be expected to support any withdrawal, a majority based on Jewish parties is much preferred when making territorial concessions.

(3:57 am) 90% of Votes Counted: 71 Left/Arab; 49 Right/Religious

As predicted when the exit polls were first available, the individual party tallies have varied widely, but the right/left breakdown has been extremely stable, only changing by half a seat: 71 Left/Arab; 49 Right/Religious. Obviously, a number of the parties on the right will attempt to join the governing coalition.

After 90 percent of ballots were counted, Kadima is leading with 29 Knesset seats, followed by Labor with 20, Likud and Shas with 12 each, Israel Our Home with 11 each, and National Union-NRP and the Pensioners party with 8 each.

United Torah Judaism won 6 seats, Meretz is at 5, and the three Arab parties combined for 9 seats.

(3:31 AM) After Counting 89% of the Votes, Kadima Gets 29 Seats
With nearly 89 percent of the ballots counted, the election results for the 17th Knesset appeared as follows: Kadima: 29 Knesset seats, Labor: 20, Shas: 12, Likud: 12, Israel Beitenu: 11, NRP/NU: 8, Pensioners: 8, United Torah Judaism: 6

(3:05 AM) GIL Party May Become Israel Kingmaker
79-year-old Rafi Eitan, Chairman of Pensioners Party is former Mossad handler for Jonathan Pollard

(2:35 AM) Peretz Vows 'No Coalition Games'
"We'll demand treasury": Labor Party Member

(2:29 AM) Olmert, Declaring Victory, Appeals to Abbas for Peace Talks
With vote count at 64%, Kadima's strength slipped to 28 seats. Labor held at 20 seats, and Shas rose to 13

Shas Set to Meet With New Top Troika, Ignores Likud

(2:25 AM) Early Results Show Kadima Dropping Below 30 Seats
Only once before in Israeli history has a smaller party formed a government - in 1999 - and it lasted only 18 months. This coalition looks very strong, however

After counting 50% of Votes: Kadima Wins 28 Seats

Olmert: We Need to Evacuate Jews
"To move forward Israel will need to renounce parts of the Land of Israel and evacuate Jews from their homes": Acting Prime Minister Olmert

(1:00 AM) One Seat Equals 24,000 Votes
24,000 votes = 1 seat, 60,000 votes = Minimum number of votes to break the threshold; Central Elections Committee announced 70,000 defective ballots

(12:50 AM) Netanyahu: Likud Took a Blow, but I'm Staying on as Leader

(12:22 AM) Retiree Party the Big Election Success
"We're not in the pocket of ANY party!": Yaakov Ben Yizri, No. 2 on list

(12:06 AM) Kadima: Some Senior Cabinet Posts Will Go to Labor
Kadima calculating cabinet posts for Labor in coalition even before all votes counted

(11:59 PM) Yisrael Beitenu Wants In To Coalition
Yisrael Beitenu appears to have won 14 seats in the new Knesset, making the party the third largest in Israel

Election Ends With Lowest Voter Turnout Ever
(11:58 PM) Voter turnout for 17th Knesset election reached only 63.2%, the lowest in Israel's history

(11:20) There are signs of cheating: Voters Find Ballots Already Cast in Their Name

(11:09) A plausible charge of corruption has been leveled to explain the poor Likud showing:

MK Michael Eitan plans to demand an internal investigative committee to examine how the party reached its current state....Senior Likud members charged that supporters of Silvan Shalom...in fact worked to back Kadima.

This makes sense for three reasons: 1) It's been done before, as previous Likud defectees worked for Kadima while in the Likud 2) Shalom benefits because he is likely to take over if Netanyahu is deposed because of a poor showing and 3) Shalom thus gets to convert the anti-withdrawal votes to his pro-withdrawal policy.

(10:54) Here are the most important numbers available at the moment: while the individual parties' totals will likely fluctuate significantly through the night, there is one consistent and likely meaningful result: the traditional right-wing/religious alliance, which is largely anti-withdrawal, has been soundly defeated, with 49.5 total seats (averaging each of the four exit polls). The left/Arab pro-withdrawal coalition polled at 70.5 seats, which is a large victory. Because of Israel's coalition system, this large victory will be translated into enormous internal political power for Olmert and Kadima. Combining the internal political power with the universal mainstream media and international support, the unilateral withdrawal is thus extremely likely to go forward, with enormous negative consequences both in terms of internal peace and ability to defend against the Jihad.

(10:50) YNet/Rafi Smith poll:
Kadima: 30 seats
Labor: 21 seats
Israel Our Home: 14 seats
Shas: 12 seats
Likud: 10 seats
National Union ? NRP: 9 seats
United Torah Judaism: 6 seats
Pensioners' party: 5 seats
Meretz: 5 seats
Arab parties: 8 seats
Green party on verge of reaching threshold

(10:23) Exit polls show two big strong surprise showings: the anti-withdrawal Israel Our Home party (14 seats) and the Pensioners' party (8 seats), and one surprisingly weak result: Arab parties (4-6 seats). Here are the other exit poll numbers:
Channel 1: Kadima 29, Labor 22, Likud 11
Channel 2: Kadima 32, Labor 22, Likud 11
Channel 10: Kadima 31, Labor 20, Likud 12

More detailed results:
Channel 1: Kadima won 29 seats, Labor won 22 seats, Israel Our Home won 14 seats, Likud 11 won mandates, Shas 11, Pensioners 8, Nation Union-NRP 8, United Torah Judaism 6, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 6.

Channel 2: Kadima 32 seats, Labor 22 seats, Israel Our Home 13 seats, Likud 11 mandates, Shas 10, Pensioners 6, Nation Union-NRP 9, United Torah Judaism 5, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 7.

Channel 10: Kadima won 31 seats, Labor won 20 seats, Israel Our Home won 12 seats, Likud won 12 seats, Shas 11, Pensioners 7, Nation Union-NRP 8, United Torah Judaism 6, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 3.

Major news: Because of Likud's apparently poor showing, it is likely that Netanyahu will be deposed as head of the party, to be replaced by the pro-withdrawal Silvan Shalom. This means that a large number of anti-withdrawal votes will be nullified and made pro-withdrawal.

(9:40) Voter turnout was officially reported at 57% with two hours remaining. Although this is reported as "the lowest ever," this does not make sense. In 2001, total turnout was 60%, so this year's voting appears to be in line with that figure.

(8:33 pm) Katyusha Fired for First Time from Gaza
Confirming IRIS' documentation that Kadima's Rafah arrangement made no provision to stop terrorists or arms

(7:34 pm) Why is voter turnout so low? Participation has been plummeting in recent years: 79% in both 1996 and 1999, 69% in 2003, 60% in 2001. One major factor is that political leaders have been nullifying the vote. For example, the Oslo accords were signed despite Rabin's election promises, and passed through open bribery of politicians who had been elected on a strongly anti-PLO platform.

The key issue of the last election was the question of a unilateral Gaza pullout. Mitzna, who supported the withdrawal, was crushed in the largest defeat in Israeli history. Sharon, however, adopted the losing policy. Olmert, Sharon's successor, has gone even further than Sharon. In this election, the lack of clear choices is even more stark. Kadima has made a virtue of its lack of ideology and Olmert has refused to debate in order to clarify his vague positions. There is a faction of the leading anti-withdrawal party, Likud, that is actually pro-pullout.

Additionally, the Supreme Court is the most activist in the world, declaring "unconstitutional" government and Knesset decisions it disagrees with even though Israel has no constitution. Is it any wonder that many voters are expressing their disenfranchisement with apathy?

It is still worth noting that the voting rate is still high relative to other countries, particularly given that an estimated 10% of Israelis are overseas and thus ineligible to vote (foreign absentee ballots are generally not permitted).

(6:58 pm) Voter Turnout Rate: Only 47%
With four hours to go, Central Elections Committee says only 47 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, compared to 53 percent in previous elections

(6:01 pm) Elections Proceeding, Voter Turnout at Record Low
Many news reports are reporting this as "the lowest ever in Knesset electoral history," when it is 6% lower than it was at the same time as the previous election. The conventional wisdom is that low turnout is bad for Kadima.

Previous:

Prediction: Kadima will Underperform

Israeli Election is about Preventing Hamas Armageddon

The Right Should Vote Likud

Gaza's Lesson: Violence Works

Abbas Endorses Olmert

Olmert's Financial Response to Hamas Has Utterly Failed

Israel Applies the Kerry Doctrine to Rocket Attacks

Hamas: "We'll Nuke You." Israel: "We'll Keep Paying You"