Analysis / An Operation With Two Goals

Nine and a half months after completion of the pullout from the Gaza Strip, the IDF reoccupied it. The horror scenario of those who objected to the pullout has come true. Israel discovered that it could not just leave and throw away the key, that the Green Line in Gaza did not deter the Palestinians, and that the Palestinians ignored Israeli threats of harsh retaliation.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warded off the IDF's proposals for a ground operation against the Qassam launchers in recent weeks....

Sunday's attack on the Kerem Shalom outpost and kidnapping of Gilad Shalit removed Olmert's inhibitions....

Israel is striving toward a broader goal that will ensure quiet for a longer period. Olmert also understands that if the fighting continues, he can forget about the unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank. It will be difficult enough for him to explain the point for carrying out a deep pullout from the West Bank as the IDF reoccupies the Gaza Strip.

Two possible goals come to mind: one is an internationally backed cease-fire, similar to the Grapes of Wrath understandings achieved in Lebanon in the 1990s.... curtailing of the assassinations in exchange for the cessation of Qassam fire. The question is whether there is a responsible body in Gaza with which to make such a deal, as was the case with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The second, more ambitious target, would be toppling the Hamas government and reinstating Fatah. This would be vindicated in the world as a move against a criminal terror government and creating a partner for future negotiations over the West Bank. The question is whether Israel has enough power to overthrow the Palestinian government.