Monday, July 17. 2006
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By
Barry Rubin (Jerusalem Post)
The Hizballah missile offensive is based on surprise and mobility.
Military effectiveness is not important, since Hizballah is satisfied if a missile hits anything in Israel.
Another significant element is new technology, especially the more advanced missiles supplied by Iran, including the one used against a naval missile boat.
Yet such a strategy also makes Hizbullah vulnerable. First, once it's been employed, Israel expects it and devises counter-measures.
One cannot win a war this way - merely get headline-grabbing small victories.
Hizballah has many missiles that can be moved easily and fired quickly. It has already fired 700 of them.
Their disadvantages are a relatively short range and no reliable guidance system, making them useful to spread terror and target civilians but not for military goals.
Unless some dramatic new technique is found, there are three basic ways to combat them:
? Cut off the sources of missiles and fuel by closing down Beirut's airport and the roads to Syria and attacking incoming shipments.
? Hit launchers on the ground before they fire.
? Force back Hizbullah forces far enough from the border to limit the targets they can hit.
Reducing the effectiveness and numbers of missile attacks already seems to be working to some extent, but stopping them altogether will be a longer and more difficult task.
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