Wednesday, August 9. 2006
By Yechiel Spira (Israel National News)
Military analysts explain that Halutz?s move was nothing less than Adam?s notice of dismissal, a sign of no-confidence and dissatisfaction with his performance since the warfare began some 29 days ago.
Others explain that the move signals more than dissatisfaction, but also a clear sign that Halutz expects to receive the green light from the prime minister for a large-scale military operation, one that will involve more than the close to 100,000 reservists already activated for service, one that will bring IDF forces deeper into Lebanon, deeper into Hezbollah territory.
Defense Minister Amir Peretz supports Halutz?s position, seeking to deploy tens of thousands of IDF forces in southern Lebanon towards bringing a halt to daily rocket attacks. Peretz agrees that Hezbollah has created the current reality, but Israel must now change the face of realities along her northern border of face an endangered future existence.
Halutz on Tuesday expressed his opinion in clear terms, not flinching at the reality that a large-scale incursion deeper into southern Lebanon would result in considerable loss of life, with predictions hovering between 300-500 soldiers.
Halutz warns that there is no alternative, explaining that if a ceasefire is forced on Israel with the current realities, Hezbollah will declare victory and the result will be a real threat to Israel?s future existence.
Most analysts are in agreement, albeit some hesitantly, admitting that then Prime Minister Ehud Barak?s unilateral retreat from the security zone in May 2000 has provided Hezbollah the stage to prepare for the current war, leaving the Syrian/Iranian back guerilla army six years to stockpile weapons and train forces for the big standoff with Israel. Despite warnings, successive governments following Barak?s move opted to ignore the signs.
Since the start of the warfare, 105 Israelis have been killed, civilians and military personnel. 3,487 Katyusha rockets were fired into Israel, and Magen David Adom emergency medical service officials responded to 1,070 calls for assistance resulting from rocket attacks. Air force officials? report pilots have carried out over 5,127 sorties, and foreign sources report close to 800 Lebanese have been killed. Nevertheless, the rockets continue to fall.
After four weeks in bomb shelters, senior war correspondent Menachem Horowitz questions how the government has yet to declare a ?state-of-emergency,? realizing that such a move would compel the national government to infuse emergency funding and war aid to rocket-stricken communities. Horowitz commented earlier in the week that the government investigation which will follow the war will undoubtedly address the national government?s failure to deal with the daily needs of citizens, leaving them stranded in under-equipped and over-crowded bomb shelters for a month, without any aid.
Despite Peretz?s and Halutz?s definitive position, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is moving cautiously, with aides admitting the prime minister remains undecided. Olmert is seeking additional guarantees regarding a decisive IDF victory, realizing the past four weeks have not produced the desired results. Analysts agree that IDF forces have ?won? most battles, but Hezbollah has not exhibited true signs of defeat as rockets continue to pound civilian population centers.
Halutz?s move to override Adam?s authority in the northern district is a major step towards achieving such a goal. Some military analysts also view Halutz?s move as one to cover his back, realizing when the war ends, a national inquiry into the events will also focus on the operation of the IDF, and Halutz has just thrown a significant portion of the responsibility for any failure on Adam?s shoulders.
Ben Caspit in his lead story in Wednesday?s Ma?ariv writes that the race against the clock is a high-stakes race, pointing out the trilateral forum, France, Lebanon and Hezbollah is working to impose new realities on Israel, not necessarily realities that will provide increase future security for the State of Israel.
Adam, in his response to Halutz?s statement admitted to Galei Tzahal (Army) Radio on Tuesday evening that he is ?keeping much inside,? and will ?comment when the time is right,? but added ?it is Halutz?s right to appoint a special officer to oversee war efforts,? remaining well within the guidelines of an acceptable response from a senior officer on the General Staff.
Kaplinski is a well-seasoned and well-qualified infantry officer, acknowledged to be the ?right-man-for-the-right-job? to oversee the IDF incursion into Lebanon.
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