Olmert is Eshkol Redux

Well, the Lebanon war is almost over. Olmert's conduct of it reminded me of the famous joke which used to be told about the indecisiveness of Israel's 1967 PM, Levi Eshkol.

It went like this: When you ask Eshkol if he wants tea of coffee, he answers, half and half. This time when you asked Olmert if he authorized the IDF to reach the Litani, he said yes and promptly agreed to a UN cease fire which will halt the operation. The border region was constantly filled with troops and tanks moving in and out of Lebanon. Eskkol's hesitancy led to his chief of staff's nervous break down and so did Olmert's. Both men where apt internal operators but incapable war leaders.

The crucial difference is that in 1967 Eshkol's hesitancy was revealed in the prewar period. This permitted his replacement with the architect of the previous Sinai war, Moshe Dayan. Dayan took command, revamped the plan and told his commanders that they are in for a bloody fight but that they will be victorious. In the end, the fight was less bloody than anticipated and the victory was much greater.

Olmert's rush to war camouflaged his unsuitability as a war leader. It also robbed the military of time to revamp its plans, reinforce its command structure with officers who experienced in fighting in Lebanon or even to call up the reserves. Overconfidence in international support caused Olmert and company to ignore past experience and convince themselves instead that they did not have to rush and win. Instead, they let an inexperience chief of staff, a pilot, set aside existing plans in favor of a bombing campaign along the line undertaken by NATO against Serbia.

That campaign lasted 72 days, caused thousands of civilian deaths and destroyed the country's infrastructure including multiple bridges across the Danube. But NATO suffered very few casualties. Only an ridiculously naive leadership could imagine that Israel would be permitted to embark on a similar campaign in Lebanon. Be that as it may, the politically savvy Olmert government told the surprised country to prepare for a lengthy war. No one believed it.

It took the country a few days and a few hundreds rockets to realize that something was amiss. The home front did not break but the leadership incompetence was revealed. Any additional fighting would not improve matters but would only cost unnecessary casualties.

Hence, Israelis have little choice but to agree to a humiliating cease fire which would give the country time to take care of some urgent business, the reorganization of the Israeli political and military leadership in preparation for the next round of fighting which is sure to follow. Israel's enemies are smelling blood and they will not wait long to try and taste it.

In the meantime we have a respite. Let's hope we use it well and let's pray it's price will be tolerable.