Status Quo Ante

After reading the text of the UN Security Council's cease-fire resolution adopted on Friday, we'd say the "status quo ante" is nearly what we've got. The new resolution does call for disarming Hezbollah, just as Resolution 1559 previously did, but without saying who will do it. There's reason to doubt that Lebanon's army will be able to disarm Hezbollah's still-powerful military. The resolution also calls for beefing up UNIFIL, the existing UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon that also couldn't disarm Hezbollah. The resolution fell short of invoking the Chapter VII powers that U.S. officials had previously said were necessary to ensure a strong enough UN presence. The likelihood is that UNIFIL and the Lebanese army will co-exist with Hezbollah, which will slowly re-arm to strike Israel again at the time of its choosing.

Yes, the new resolution calls for an arms embargo against Hezbollah, but Iran and Syria have evaded such strictures before. Perhaps, for a time, this cease-fire resolution will "stop the violence." But the price for letting a transnational terrorist group like Hezbollah claim victory is likely to be far more bloodshed in the future.