Lessons from Lebanon

Bush is right, as is Blair, to see the current conflict in Lebanon as part of the wider war on terror. Hezbollah concedes that its goal is not simply to establish a Palestinian state or to recover a disputed territory known as Shebaa Farms. Hezbollah wants to annihilate Israel, a step in a much broader campaign. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently described Hezbollah as the Muslim world's "front-line against the West."

For this reason, the emerging cease-fire in Lebanon may turn out to be a disaster, producing the worst of all possible policy outcomes. Hezbollah has not been disarmed. This will embolden the extremists. It will allow Iran, Hezbollah's chief sponsor, to claim victory. Once again, America's image has taken a blow. There is good reason to believe the West has missed an opportunity to push through critical changes. Lebanese opinion, especially among non-Shia Muslims, was initially critical of Hezbollah. Other regional governments - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan - openly criticized Iran's proxy.