IRIS Blog

Anti-Semitic Congresswoman to be Arrested for Assaulting Police Officer
See this article for context

Bibi by a Landslide on US Campuses
Tens of thousands of American Jewish students at a hundred different college campuses voted

Two Dead, 20 Wounded in Gaza Clashes

Ancient Road to Temple Mount Uncovered
"The main road that ran from Jerusalem's City of David to the Temple Mount during the time of the Second Temple 2,000 years ago has been uncovered, said Israeli Antiquities Authority archeologist Eli Shukrun. The road was used by the tens of thousands of people who came to Jerusalem for the Jewish pilgrimage holidays, who immersed themselves in the Shiloah pool before entering the Temple Mount."

Grenade Injures Ten in Gaza Clan Dispute

Ex-Mossad Chief Amit Urges West to Unite Against Muslim Attacks

Give this must-read article to your daughters, because it might innoculate against the propaganda they will hear in college from feminist professors like the one who conducted this study. She was surprised and even chagrined to discover what almost every adult already knows. The article was published in today's London Daily Telegraph and is reproduced here in full:

Samantha of Sex and the City, it is fair to say, would not approve. The casual attitude to sexual relations embraced by the most liberated of the characters in the television series turns out not to reflect the views of 21st century women quite as well as widely imagined.

Researchers investigating female attitudes to sex and their sexuality were surprised to find that most women have rather more traditional, conservative views on one-night stands than they expected.

Around nine out of 10 of those questioned felt casual sex was immoral and that those women who engaged in it were not doing so primarily for pleasure.

They said they felt sorry for women who had one-night stands, that they were lacking something in their lives and if they had not simply lost control through drink and drugs they were seeking emotional rather than physical connection.

Jordan Appeals to Quartet for PA Funding

U.S. Bans Diplomatic Contact with Hamas

UN: Israel Left No Ecological Damage in Gaza

Extraordinary Juggling
This is must-see entertainment, an antidote to the news which is too often depressing

Houston High School Principal flies Mexican Flag at School

Sometimes the N.Y. Times is Correct, by Ann Coulter
"Four major world leaders who sent troops to Iraq have faced elections. Three of them won re-elections in campaigns that centered on their support for the Iraq war."

Islamic Jihad: We Have "Many" Katyushas in Gaza
Because of the Gaza pullout and utter negligence by Kadima at Rafah

Arab League States Unanimously Reject Unilateral Israeli Measures

Gaza Strip Witnesses a New Wave of Security Chaos Incidents

A must-read, by Daniel Doron, who elaborates on this IRIS warning from Feb. 13:

When Kadima says "trust us" and doesn't reveal any policies, it means they are the chosen favorites of the 5 Families who will do their bidding. Israel is heading for long-term disaster by placing these foxes, along with Peretz's Labor, in the henhouse rules' committee.

While this election was a major loss for Israel's right-wing in terms of security, it was absolutely devastating for the free-market Right. Doron explains why:

A few days prior to the election, two top Israeli journalists - known for their rare combination of intelligence, courage and integrity - threw a veritable bombshell into the otherwise soporific electoral debate.

To preserve the large lead that Ariel Sharon gained for his newly formed Kadima, under the leadership of the less popular Ehud Olmert, party strategists decided to keep the election campaign on a low key. Though Israel faces some life-and-death choices that voters should understand and sort out, Kadima strategists refused to have Olmert debate his two chief rivals, the Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu and Labor's Amir Peretz. They also managed to have a very supportive media keep any serious issue out of the public's eye.

This is why the extraordinarily critical articles, one by senior Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit, and the other by Guy Rolnik, Haaretz and the Marker economic editor, people from the Left, mind you, would have created a media firestorm in any normal country.

Shavit and Rolnik asserted that Netanyahu, whom the media marked as enemy of the poor and a peon of the rich, was actually the man who saved the Israeli economy from collapse and protected the poor; that he was the one who broke the major power of the rich, the bank monopoly; and that conversely, Kadima and its leader, the darlings of the media, may actually endanger Israel's security, and corrupt its democratic system and its economy.

Read the whole thing.

By Jeff Jacoby:

-America's longstanding solidarity with Israel suits most Americans just fine. U.S. policy tends to align closely with Israel's because Americans like Israel. They instinctively sympathize with Israel's fight for survival in one of the world's most dangerous neighborhoods. Americans recognize in Israeli society a modern liberal democracy - a country like their own.

-With all its flaws, Israel has the freest and fairest political system in the Middle East and the only one that guarantees complete freedom of worship to Christians and Muslims.

-Israel is an invaluable American ally - a stable and dependable base in a most unstable part of the globe. From military R&D to world-class intelligence services, from a deepwater port to sophisticated air facilities, from counterterrorist expertise to a solid democratic culture, Israel brings assets to its strategic relationship with the U.S. that few countries can match.

-American history is deeply rooted in Judeo-Christian soil, nourishing a special kinship between America's Christians and the Jewish people. ''I really wish the Jews again in Judea an independent nation," former President John Adams wrote in 1819.

-Americans sympathize so strongly with the Israelis because both face a common enemy. Unlike Walt and Mearsheimer, who can find ''no moral basis" for taking Israel's side, most Americans make a clear moral distinction between suicide bombers and their victims.

See also: Harvard Co-Author of Jewish Lobby Report to Step Down as Dean

A must-read by Daniel Pipes, reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's shocking "We win, they lose" strategy of the US toward the Soviet Union, reproduced here in full:

As Israelis went to the polls, not one of the leading parties offered the option of winning the war against the Palestinians. It's a striking and dangerous lacuna.

First, some background. Wars are won, the historical record shows, when one side feels compelled to give up on its goals. This is only logical, for so long as both sides hope to achieve their war ambitions, fighting either continues or potentially can resume. For example, although defeated in World War I, Germans did not give up their goal of dominating Europe and soon again turned to Hitler to try again. The Korean War ended over a half century ago but neither north or south having given up its aspirations means fighting could flare up at any time. Similarly, through the many rounds of the Arab-Israeli conflict - wars in 1948-49, 1956, 1967, 1973, and 1982 - both sides retained their goals.

Those goals are simple, static, and binary. The Arabs fight to eliminate Israel, Israel fights to win the acceptance of its neighbors. The first is offensive in intent, the second is defensive. The former is barbaric, and the latter civilized. For nearly 60 years, Arab rejectionists have sought to eliminate Israel via a range of strategies: undermining its legitimacy through propaganda, harming its economy through a trade boycott, demoralizing it through terrorism, and threatening its population via WMD.

While I did not make a prediction about the overall election, I did predict that Kadima would underperform the pre-election polls. Kadima was surveyed to receive 37 seats just prior to the election (down from a high of 42-45). Kadima ended up with 28, which is 32% less than predicted.

Not all of my reasoning behind the prediction was on-target, however, and I certainly did not forsee the blowout victory that the Left won on the socioeconomic front. That will, in my opinion, will have disastrous long-term effects.

This is Israel's most consequential election ever. Should Israel respond to the Hamas victory with another unilateral pullout, from the strategic high ground of the West Bank, as Ehud Olmert's Kadima has indicated it will do?

This entry will be continually updated with ongoing reporting, with an effort to provide perspective and separate the consequential from trivial distractions.

(6:29) IRIS Election Prediction Confirmed: Kadima Underperforms Polls by 32%
While I did not make a prediction about the overall election, I did predict that Kadima would underperform the pre-election polls. Kadima was surveyed to receive 37 seats just prior to the election (down from a high of 42). Kadima ended up with 28, which is 32% less than predicted.

(6:11 am) 99.67% of Votes Counted: 69 Left/Arab; 51 Right/Religious
Kadima: 28, Labor: 20, Shas: 13, Israel Our Home: 12, Likud: 11, Pensioners: 7, National Union-NRP: 9, United Torah Judaism: 6, Meretz: 4, Balad: 3, Hadash: 3, United Arab List: 4

Another way of breaking down the voting blocks:

Arabs (Balad: 3, Hadash: 3, United Arab List 4): 10
Left (Kadima, Labor, Meretz): 52
Unknown (Pensioners): 7
Right + Religious (Shas, Likud, Israel Beitenu, NRP/NU, UTJ): 51

An interesting caveat is that Ehud Olmert's Kadima party has failed to win a "Jewish majority" for his withdrawal plans, even if the Pensioners party is considered part of the Left. Olmert previously announced he will not bring the Arab parties into his government. Though these parties can be expected to support any withdrawal, a majority based on Jewish parties is much preferred when making territorial concessions.

(3:57 am) 90% of Votes Counted: 71 Left/Arab; 49 Right/Religious

As predicted when the exit polls were first available, the individual party tallies have varied widely, but the right/left breakdown has been extremely stable, only changing by half a seat: 71 Left/Arab; 49 Right/Religious. Obviously, a number of the parties on the right will attempt to join the governing coalition.

After 90 percent of ballots were counted, Kadima is leading with 29 Knesset seats, followed by Labor with 20, Likud and Shas with 12 each, Israel Our Home with 11 each, and National Union-NRP and the Pensioners party with 8 each.

United Torah Judaism won 6 seats, Meretz is at 5, and the three Arab parties combined for 9 seats.

(3:31 AM) After Counting 89% of the Votes, Kadima Gets 29 Seats
With nearly 89 percent of the ballots counted, the election results for the 17th Knesset appeared as follows: Kadima: 29 Knesset seats, Labor: 20, Shas: 12, Likud: 12, Israel Beitenu: 11, NRP/NU: 8, Pensioners: 8, United Torah Judaism: 6

(3:05 AM) GIL Party May Become Israel Kingmaker
79-year-old Rafi Eitan, Chairman of Pensioners Party is former Mossad handler for Jonathan Pollard

(2:35 AM) Peretz Vows 'No Coalition Games'
"We'll demand treasury": Labor Party Member

(2:29 AM) Olmert, Declaring Victory, Appeals to Abbas for Peace Talks
With vote count at 64%, Kadima's strength slipped to 28 seats. Labor held at 20 seats, and Shas rose to 13

Shas Set to Meet With New Top Troika, Ignores Likud

(2:25 AM) Early Results Show Kadima Dropping Below 30 Seats
Only once before in Israeli history has a smaller party formed a government - in 1999 - and it lasted only 18 months. This coalition looks very strong, however

After counting 50% of Votes: Kadima Wins 28 Seats

Olmert: We Need to Evacuate Jews
"To move forward Israel will need to renounce parts of the Land of Israel and evacuate Jews from their homes": Acting Prime Minister Olmert

(1:00 AM) One Seat Equals 24,000 Votes
24,000 votes = 1 seat, 60,000 votes = Minimum number of votes to break the threshold; Central Elections Committee announced 70,000 defective ballots

(12:50 AM) Netanyahu: Likud Took a Blow, but I'm Staying on as Leader

(12:22 AM) Retiree Party the Big Election Success
"We're not in the pocket of ANY party!": Yaakov Ben Yizri, No. 2 on list

(12:06 AM) Kadima: Some Senior Cabinet Posts Will Go to Labor
Kadima calculating cabinet posts for Labor in coalition even before all votes counted

(11:59 PM) Yisrael Beitenu Wants In To Coalition
Yisrael Beitenu appears to have won 14 seats in the new Knesset, making the party the third largest in Israel

Election Ends With Lowest Voter Turnout Ever
(11:58 PM) Voter turnout for 17th Knesset election reached only 63.2%, the lowest in Israel's history

(11:20) There are signs of cheating: Voters Find Ballots Already Cast in Their Name

(11:09) A plausible charge of corruption has been leveled to explain the poor Likud showing:

MK Michael Eitan plans to demand an internal investigative committee to examine how the party reached its current state....Senior Likud members charged that supporters of Silvan Shalom...in fact worked to back Kadima.

This makes sense for three reasons: 1) It's been done before, as previous Likud defectees worked for Kadima while in the Likud 2) Shalom benefits because he is likely to take over if Netanyahu is deposed because of a poor showing and 3) Shalom thus gets to convert the anti-withdrawal votes to his pro-withdrawal policy.

(10:54) Here are the most important numbers available at the moment: while the individual parties' totals will likely fluctuate significantly through the night, there is one consistent and likely meaningful result: the traditional right-wing/religious alliance, which is largely anti-withdrawal, has been soundly defeated, with 49.5 total seats (averaging each of the four exit polls). The left/Arab pro-withdrawal coalition polled at 70.5 seats, which is a large victory. Because of Israel's coalition system, this large victory will be translated into enormous internal political power for Olmert and Kadima. Combining the internal political power with the universal mainstream media and international support, the unilateral withdrawal is thus extremely likely to go forward, with enormous negative consequences both in terms of internal peace and ability to defend against the Jihad.

(10:50) YNet/Rafi Smith poll:
Kadima: 30 seats
Labor: 21 seats
Israel Our Home: 14 seats
Shas: 12 seats
Likud: 10 seats
National Union ? NRP: 9 seats
United Torah Judaism: 6 seats
Pensioners' party: 5 seats
Meretz: 5 seats
Arab parties: 8 seats
Green party on verge of reaching threshold

(10:23) Exit polls show two big strong surprise showings: the anti-withdrawal Israel Our Home party (14 seats) and the Pensioners' party (8 seats), and one surprisingly weak result: Arab parties (4-6 seats). Here are the other exit poll numbers:
Channel 1: Kadima 29, Labor 22, Likud 11
Channel 2: Kadima 32, Labor 22, Likud 11
Channel 10: Kadima 31, Labor 20, Likud 12

More detailed results:
Channel 1: Kadima won 29 seats, Labor won 22 seats, Israel Our Home won 14 seats, Likud 11 won mandates, Shas 11, Pensioners 8, Nation Union-NRP 8, United Torah Judaism 6, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 6.

Channel 2: Kadima 32 seats, Labor 22 seats, Israel Our Home 13 seats, Likud 11 mandates, Shas 10, Pensioners 6, Nation Union-NRP 9, United Torah Judaism 5, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 7.

Channel 10: Kadima won 31 seats, Labor won 20 seats, Israel Our Home won 12 seats, Likud won 12 seats, Shas 11, Pensioners 7, Nation Union-NRP 8, United Torah Judaism 6, Meretz 5, and the Arab parties 3.

Major news: Because of Likud's apparently poor showing, it is likely that Netanyahu will be deposed as head of the party, to be replaced by the pro-withdrawal Silvan Shalom. This means that a large number of anti-withdrawal votes will be nullified and made pro-withdrawal.

(9:40) Voter turnout was officially reported at 57% with two hours remaining. Although this is reported as "the lowest ever," this does not make sense. In 2001, total turnout was 60%, so this year's voting appears to be in line with that figure.

(8:33 pm) Katyusha Fired for First Time from Gaza
Confirming IRIS' documentation that Kadima's Rafah arrangement made no provision to stop terrorists or arms

(7:34 pm) Why is voter turnout so low? Participation has been plummeting in recent years: 79% in both 1996 and 1999, 69% in 2003, 60% in 2001. One major factor is that political leaders have been nullifying the vote. For example, the Oslo accords were signed despite Rabin's election promises, and passed through open bribery of politicians who had been elected on a strongly anti-PLO platform.

The key issue of the last election was the question of a unilateral Gaza pullout. Mitzna, who supported the withdrawal, was crushed in the largest defeat in Israeli history. Sharon, however, adopted the losing policy. Olmert, Sharon's successor, has gone even further than Sharon. In this election, the lack of clear choices is even more stark. Kadima has made a virtue of its lack of ideology and Olmert has refused to debate in order to clarify his vague positions. There is a faction of the leading anti-withdrawal party, Likud, that is actually pro-pullout.

Additionally, the Supreme Court is the most activist in the world, declaring "unconstitutional" government and Knesset decisions it disagrees with even though Israel has no constitution. Is it any wonder that many voters are expressing their disenfranchisement with apathy?

It is still worth noting that the voting rate is still high relative to other countries, particularly given that an estimated 10% of Israelis are overseas and thus ineligible to vote (foreign absentee ballots are generally not permitted).

(6:58 pm) Voter Turnout Rate: Only 47%
With four hours to go, Central Elections Committee says only 47 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, compared to 53 percent in previous elections

(6:01 pm) Elections Proceeding, Voter Turnout at Record Low
Many news reports are reporting this as "the lowest ever in Knesset electoral history," when it is 6% lower than it was at the same time as the previous election. The conventional wisdom is that low turnout is bad for Kadima.

Previous:

Prediction: Kadima will Underperform

Israeli Election is about Preventing Hamas Armageddon

The Right Should Vote Likud

Gaza's Lesson: Violence Works

Abbas Endorses Olmert

Olmert's Financial Response to Hamas Has Utterly Failed

Israel Applies the Kerry Doctrine to Rocket Attacks

Hamas: "We'll Nuke You." Israel: "We'll Keep Paying You"

Saudis, with Pakistani Help, Working on Nuclear Programme

Hamas Government Approved, Vows to Fight Israel

Palestinian Al-Aqsa Brigades Preparing Attack on Ashkelon
In Hebrew; click here.

Former Defense Chief Caspar Weinberger Dies at 88

Cockerel Spared After 'Crowing 'Allah''

Amona Inquiry: Police Used Excessive Force
See this site for context

Kassam Update: 3 Rockets Fell, but No Casualties this Time
Earlier reports of deaths were apparently inaccurate

Two Israelis Killed in Kassam Rocket Strike
Olmert recently announced that "the rocket problem had been solved." What else is he "overconfident" about?

Of Ideology and Incompetence, by Caroline Glick

13 Dead in Muslim Bombing in the Philippines

Here's my election prediction: the conventional wisdom, confirmed in every survey, is wrong. Kadima's poll numbers are inflated.

This is my most speculative prediction so far because I have no real evidence. The logic, however, suddenly hit me. Israelis are basically right-wing on security, despite the deceptions of the left-wing media. The undecided vote has been large primarily because many right-wingers are undecided about how to vote against the withdrawal. It is complicated to vote right-wing this time. Voting for a unilateral withdrawal requires voting for Kadima. Voting against appeasing Hamas requires sophisticated game-theory analysis. A significant faction in the Likud, for example, is pro-withdrawal.

Additionally, Kadima is based on corruption at the highest levels and has a banana republic-like level of comfort with obvious deceptions. It has that hubris because the mainstream media (both local and international) are Kadima partisans in their eagerness to support the party of "unilateral withdrawal." Pollsters can swing elections, and have probably given in to that temptation to mislead. Kadima's ability to make corrupt, quid pro quo deals has been entirely based on their inflated poll numbers. The pollsters may have believed that they were able to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even Kadima's opponents have not attacked strongly, believing in a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" strategy of pulling their punches to prepare for the possibility of joining a future Kadima coalition.

Of course, the main support for this cynical speculation is Kadima's track record of deceptions, not hard evidence. A real danger is that such cynicism will become ubiquitous should Kadima win.