Wednesday, February 11. 2009
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It is clear that there has been a major swing to the Right due to today's elections in Israel, but it is not clear yet how far, and how much this will affect the composition of the next government. Here are the results, according to the major exit polls, by bloc:
| Bloc | Current Knesset | Exit Polls | | Arab Parties | 10 | 9 | | Left | 60 | 46-48 | | Right | 27 | 45 | | Religious | 23 | 18-20 |
So far, both the polls and early voting results show a clear trend away from the Left and the religious parties towards the Right.
The Arab parties traditionally support the Left but have never served in a government. The religious parties tend to support the Right but normally one or two religious parties can be wooed into a Left-wing government as well.
That means that Tzippi Livni and Kadima may be given the opportunity to create a government, but under much worse conditions than a few months ago when Livni tried to form a government and failed. According to the exit polls she would need at least two religious parties or one major Right-wing party to create a 61-seat majority, which by itself would be a substantial shift to the Right from the current coalition. It would also leave a much more powerful Right-wing opposition than there is in the current Knesset.
A more natural coalition would be a Right/religious coalition but that depends on the final results, who President Shimon Peres chooses to be the first leader to try to form a coalition, and the dynamics of the coalition-building process.
The big question: how similar will the final results be to the exit polls?
All polls in Israel seem to be slanted to the Left. Even massive exit polls with tens of thousands of respondents tend to be wrong by substantially more than the statistical margin of error. Apparently this is due to the political bias of the pollsters, their choice of questions, their lack of ability to reach a truly representative sample, and/or the lack of truthfullness of all the responses.
Sometimes this is noticed, as when Benjamin Netanyahu squeaked out a victory in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. Sometimes it is not noticed, as in 1992 when an exit poll of 20,000 people showed that the Left (Labor and Meretz) had a majority of 61 seats. In the end they only had 56, which was an error of 8.2%. Even small polls of 500 respondants are supposed to have a margin of error of only 4%; with 20,000 respondants the margin of error should have been close to zero. But the incompetent polling was ignored since the Left still had a "blocking majority" with the Arab parties and went on to create a coalition.
Are tonight's exit polls slanted to the Left as they have been so many times in recent years? If so, Benjamin Netanyahu may again squeak out a victory, as he did in 1996 after both major exit polls showed he had lost. If not, he may still get a chance to form a government, either now or later.
So far (at 1:30 AM Israel time) the early results show an even bigger lead for the Right/Religious bloc and an even narrower lead for Kadima over Likud, but it is going to be a long night before the final results are in.
Tuesday, February 10. 2009
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The polls closed at 10:00 PM and the major Israeli media [ here, here and here] have published their exit polls and initial election returns which show Tzipi Livni and Kadima with a slim 2 Knesset seat lead over the Likud and its party leader Binyamin Netanyahu.
The exit polls indicate that Kadima won 28-30 Knesset seats while the Likud garnered 27-28 Knesset seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party won 14-15 seats while Ehud Barak and the Labor party showed 13 seats on all of the exit polls. Shas finished fifth winning between 9-10 seats.
The early voting returns (as of 1:10 AM in Israel) reflect the same pattern as the exit polls, but with an even narrower gap between Kadima and Likud, and slightly stronger results for the Right/Religious bloc at the expense of the Left/Arab bloc: Kadima has 28 seats; Likud, 27; Yisrael Beiteinu, 16; Labor, 13 and Shas, 11.
The returns to this point show a potential right-wing coalition block of 67 Knesset seats and the strong possibility that Netanyahu and Likud would likely be designated to form the government by President Shimon Peres, although Likud finished 2nd to Kadima in the voting. Ynet's Attila Somfalvi, however writes of the possibility that the election results could compel a prime ministerial power-sharing rotation between Netanyahu and Livni recalling the rotation which followed the 1984 election between Likud's Yitzchak Shamir and Labor's then leader Shimon Peres.
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Some 650,000 Israelis living abroad are prohibited from voting in today's Israeli elections as Israel is one the few Western countries not permitting absentee ballots to be filed by her citizens residing abroad:
Only those able and willing to pay to fly back to Israel are permitted to participate in the elections...
Likud MK Reuven Rivlin said the only reason that the law remained on the books was due to political considerations on the part of parties who believe that they have something to lose by enfranchising the overseas residents.
In 1996, Rivlin proposed a law to extend voting rights to Israelis living overseas. Although it passed its preliminary reading, a change in what Rivlin described as "demographic pressure" removed some of the urgency in passing the legislation.
Translation: With the mass immigration of Jews from the former Soviet Union in the 1990's, there was less concern about offsetting Arab votes with Jewish votes from abroad. (More recently, it has been shown that the Arab "Demographic Bomb" is a thing of the past, except amongst uninformed members of the Left who still use the demographic argument as a pretext for surrendering land to the enemy.)
Rivlin said that at the time, "it was clear to everybody that allowing votes overseas would benefit Likud. Its no secret that the majority of Israelis in Los Angeles would vote for Likud."
As a result, he said, left-wing parties refused to support the legislation.
Presumably the original reason that "yordim", those Israelis who have left Israel, were denied the vote was related to the collective disdain Israelis had/have for their brethren who "abandoned the cause" and left.
Instead of seeing these people as nothing more than potential votes, Israel should be doing what it can to get as many of these Israelis back to Israel. With Israel's economy in significantly better shape than that of many of the countries where the yordim have settled, now is the perfect time to encourage them to come back home.
Monday, February 9. 2009
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Another reason to punish those parties in the current Israeli government in elections tomorrow -- after the mini-war in Gaza, the rockets have returned (they never really stopped), except now Ashkelon is included in the list of regular targets as well.
In response to the rocket attacks on the Sha'ar HaNegev region and on the outskirts of Ashkelon yesterday, the Israeli Air Force attacked 2 empty buildings in Gaza last night:
Israel Air Force F-16 planes strafed two Hamas terrorist positions, including a police station, in Khan Yunis in south-central Gaza, in the pre-dawn hours Monday. No injuries were reported, but the targets sustained damage.
The retaliation was a continuation of the government's... policy to strike back at pinpointed targets every time terrorists in Gaza attack Israel. Two Kassam rockets hit the country on Sunday.
The message to Hamas is clear: we could hurt you, but we won't.
The Jerusalem Post reports that Ashkelon municipality has requested rocket-proof reinforcement for some of the city's schools:
Hours after the rocket fell, the city's municipality reiterated a request to the Home Front Command to implement a plan to protect educational facilities through rocket-proof reinforcement structures.
Ten schools and 22 kindergartens have no protection whatsoever against rocket attacks, Ashkelon Deputy Mayor Shlomo Cohen said, adding that the ongoing rockets fired at the city came as no surprise to local authority heads.
Hundreds of thousands of people now live in the range of rockets from Gaza. Wouldn't it be easier and make more sense to do what it takes to uproot the rocket threat rather than try and reinforce every building and playground in southern Israel?
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We who hope and pray for Gilad Schalit's release from his Gazan captors certainly want him home again soon. But not at any price.
However, now it seems that the Olmert/Kadima government plans to continue to try to arrange a dangerous trade of 1000 terrorists for Schalit, even after elections tomorrow:
Pensioners Minister Rafi Eitan said that an agreement that will include Schalit's release in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners could be signed while Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is still in office.
"From my experience, I know that it takes time until a new government is formed, and during that period of about six weeks it is possible to progress on the Schalit matter," Eitan said in an Army Radio interview.
In other words, negotiating a lopsided deal for Schalit's release will continue post-elections during coalition negotiations and governmental transition.
A massive release of terrorist prisoners would, as always, be a security disaster for Israel. Many of the released terrorists would return to terror and the terror groups would once again be emboldened by Israeli weakness.
Hopefully a different party will be elected tomorrow to lead Israel. Will the new leadership have the wisdom to reject a lopsided deal with Hamas, and will it have the courage to fight it even before it is finished creating a new government?
Sunday, February 8. 2009
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Amidst media hype of a draft of a "long-term" ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and of a possible "election day surprise" deal for Gilad Shalit, involving the release of 1,000 terrorists, including Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti and other murderers of Israelis, Israel National News reports that a Kassam rocket exploded Sunday morning in the parking lot of a kibbutz located in the Sha'ar HaNegev region and near Sderot.
A Jerusalem Post report noted that extensive property damage resulted from the rocket attack, including two autos which were set ablaze and destroyed.
This afternoon, The Jerusalem Post and Israel National News are both reporting that a Grad rocket hit the southern outskirts of Ashkelon shortly after 2:00 p.m.
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The Jerusalem Post reported on Friday that the UNRWA was suspending humanitarian aid to Gaza after a second Hamas theft of supplies meant for Gaza civilians this week. This blog cited the previous Hamas theft of humanitarian aid which was reported on Wednesday.
The Jerusalem Post report noted:
The seizure of the 200 tons of supplies took place Thursday night and in response, UNRWA officials informed the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration that it was suspending its deliveries to the Gaza Strip until further notice. The supplies confiscated included flour and other basic commodities.
The transfer of 40 truckloads of humanitarian supplies - some 800 tons - planned for Sunday has already been canceled.
Officials in Jerusalem said the announcement by UNRWA constituted a UN approval and confirmation of Israel's position, that Hamas is using the Palestinian population in Gaza "cruelly and cynically" and is solely responsible for hardship there.
No kidding.
The only news here is that even the UN has limit to what it will tolerate. For quite some time the Hamas has been "taking a cut" of all humanitarian aid to Gaza, so the message sent to Hamas is clear: you can steal some of the aid, just not all of it.
Since the UNRWA is not about to give up its raison-d'etre of supporting the Palestinians no matter what they do, watch for the inevitable restarting of aid deliveries as soon as Hamas promises to be nice or to kill a few UNRWA higher-ups.
Saturday, February 7. 2009
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The Jerusalem Post reported two Friday-morning rocket attacks from Gaza, one hitting Shaar HaNegev Region and the second hitting an open area south of Ashkelon.
The IAF responded on Friday night with air strikes bombing four smuggling tunnels linking Gaza to Egypt.
The IDF Spokesman adds the following report:
Over thirty Qassam rockets, mortar shells and Grad missiles were fired at Israel since the holding of fire.
On Thursday evening, an infiltration attempt was thwarted on the security
fence in the southern Gaza Strip.
An IDF force identified a suspicious man approaching the fence and entered the area, beginning the regular rules of engagement. The terror operative then drew a hand grenade from his bag forcing the soldiers to open fire. The grenade he was holding exploded and the man was killed.
The targets included four smuggling tunnels and a weapons storage facility. Secondary explosions were seen following a number of the attacks.
Friday, February 6. 2009
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The Jerusalem Post's Evelyn Gordon expresses astonishment at the near-tie situation in the polls between Likud and Kadima where she views Tuesday's election decision as a no-brainer considering the stark contrast between their respective leaders' records:
One, despite known flaws, has racked up several impressive successes in previous posts. The other has amassed an unbroken string of failures.
To understand the extent of Tzipi Livni's failures..., read her own words. In an interview in last Friday's Haaretz, she began... citing the 2005 disengagement from Gaza: "I enabled the disengagement, thanks to the Livni compromise," which reconciled reluctant ministers to the plan. "I led the... processes regarding the settlers... I led and advanced the idea of communal resettlement for the evacuees."
The disengagement was supposed to enhance our security, prospects for peace and international goodwill. Instead... it bolstered Hamas, since Palestinians perceived it as a victory for terror. Hamas consequently won the 2006 Palestinian Authority elections.
The volume of rocket fire on Israel more than tripled post-
disengagement... Hamas can now hit Ashdod, Beersheba and Gedera. Indeed, the daily fire became so intolerable that Livni's own government just waged a war in an effort (thus far unsuccessful) to suppress it. And that war, which the pullout necessitated, brought anti-Israel and anti-Semitic sentiment to record heights.
Livni's "legislation and processes" proved so cumbersome that more than three years later, not one settler who requested communal resettlement has yet moved into a permanent home... People consider disengagement such a failure that Kadima had to shelve its plan to replicate it in the West Bank.
LIVNI ALSO boasted of her role in the Second Lebanon War: "I created the idea of a diplomatic exit... I formulated [Security Council] Resolution 1701." That resolution created an international force to... prevent Hezbollah from rearming. ...Hezbollah has rearmed so effectively that it now has more than three times as many rockets as it did before the 2006 war.
On Iran's nuclear program, Livni proclaimed: "Israel has acted and continues to act on the Iranian issue. We succeeded in getting the message across."
...Iran now has 30 times as many working centrifuges as it did... in 2006, and intelligence estimates put it only months away from enough fuel for its first nuclear bomb.
...When the interviewer accused her of being "in politics for 10 years without having chalked up genuine achievements," she indignantly replied that she had served as director-general of the Government Companies Authority and held "six different ministerial portfolios," including "justice minister, construction minister and absorption minister." ...After 10 years in politics, the only "achievements" Livni could cite were utter disasters: the disengagement, Resolution 1701, the failed effort to halt Iran's nuclear program. If these are her successes, I shudder to think what her failures would look like.
As prime minister in 1996-99, Netanyahu had two signal achievements. First, he slashed the rampant deficits inherited from Yitzhak Rabin, laying the groundwork for rapid economic growth in subsequent years.
Second, he reduced the devastating Palestinian terror he inherited by a whopping 70 percent: Fatalities dropped from 211 in 1993-96 to 63 in 1996-99. He also had significant achievements in other ministerial posts. As foreign minister, he was widely considered one of the most articulate spokesmen Israel ever had. And as finance minister, he crafted a recovery program that not only extricated the country from a deep recession, but gave it five straight years of 5 percent growth.
So why is he nevertheless remembered as a failure? One reason is character. For instance, despite correctly predicting every negative consequence of the disengagement, he lacked the courage to quit the government until it was too late to make any difference. That is a real concern and, under other circumstances, might be reason to vote against him. But not when his rival is someone whose record shows that she cannot even tell the difference between good policies and bad - because that is the fundamental prerequisite for being able to implement good ones. Netanyahu, as his record shows, can tell the difference.
Like all Israelis, I would prefer a perfect premier. But in reality, the choices are Livni or Netanyahu. The former has an unbroken record of failure in every position she ever held. The latter, despite his flaws, has recorded substantial achievements in every position he ever held. To me, that is a no-brainer.
Thursday, February 5. 2009
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Israel Mational News reports that senior Hamas terrorists negotiating with Egypt returned to Gaza without a ceasefire document in hand. But they didn't return empty-handed. In fact, one of terror delegation, Iman Taha, was arrested -- caught red-handed by Egyptian border agents trying to smuggle USD 11 million into Gaza. It is widely suspected that the cash came from Iran.
The Jerusalem Post reports that a few hours after the Hamas official was apprehended, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert gave permission for the Palestinian Authority to transfer NIS 170 million to Gaza, over the opposition of Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, in order to pay government officials there.
The Jerusalem Post cites an Israel Radio report that two ministers told Olmert:
They feared the money would make its way into the hands of Hamas members.
The report further stated that Olmert defended the transfer, saying that the funds were tax money which Israel had collected on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, and it was theirs to distribute.
The Jerusalem Post report continues:
The Prime Minister's Office said it agreed to transfer the funds in accordance with a request by PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad.
The officials to be paid are mostly Fatah members.
Olmert agreed to Fayad's request following pressure from the United States, Israel Radio further stated.
Israel National News reports this evening that "the Legal Forum for the Land of Israel.... called on Olmert, the army and the Bank of Israel to stop the transfer or risk an urgent appeal to the Supreme Court."
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Israel National News reported that the Israeli Navy halted a Lebanese ship with eighteen people on board, including crew as well as Syrian and Lebanese nationals, intending to intrude upon Israel's sovereignty over Gaza's coastal waters:
The ship had docked in Cyprus, where local authorities said they inspected it to determine to make sure its 60 tons of medicine, food, toys and books did not include weapons destined for Hamas.
Two Israeli helicopters were reported in the area at the time of the
interception, approximately 32 kilometers (20 miles) from the Gaza coast.
Among those on board were a reporter for the Arabic-language Al Jazeera
network, human rights activists and former Greek Catholic archbishop of Jerusalem, Monsignor Hilarion Capuccci.
Israel previously had warned that the ship would be breaking international law by trying to reach Gaza, where pro-Arab activists have landed four times since last August despite Israeli threats to stop them. The government reversed its policy and ordered the Navy to stop more activists' ships from reaching Gaza during Operation Cast Lead.
A Ynet report adds:
The ship was surrounded by 18 Israeli gunboats demanding the crew turn back.
The Israeli army confirmed the report, adding that the boat was towed to the Ashdod port and that the crew was taken in for questioning.
Journalists claimed that the Navy had contacted the ship's captain over the radio and warned him not to continue towards Gaza.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak confirmed that the navy seized the boat and led it to the Ashdod Port, after learning it was trying to approach Gaza via Egypt.
"The Navy boarded a small vessel making its way to Gaza from Tripoli, despite the sea embargo. The crew told us they understood they could not enter the waters and that they would be turning back to the El Arish Port.
"Once in Egyptian waters, the ship tried to 'crawl' back to Gaza waters, at which point the navy stopped it."
IMRA's Dr. Aaron Lerner reports:
Israel Radio broadcast excerpts of the Arab language Al Jazeera broadcast reporting the boarding of the vessel by Israeli forces. The Al Jazeera correspondent claimed that the Israelis openned fire on the vessel and then boarded the vessel and hit members of the crew.
Convicted gun runner Monsignor Hilarion Capuccci was released by Israel in return for the explicit and solemn promise from the Vatican that he would never again involve himself in Arab-Israeli affairs.
A subsequent report shed more light on events leading to the ship's seizure, noted that the IDF found no arms on board the ship and that the eighteen passengers on board were deported from Israel on Friday morning.
On Wednesday, the navy contacted the ship and told the captain that it would not be allowed to enter the Gaza Strip. The captain told the navy that the vessel would sail to El-Arish in Egypt.
On Thursday morning, though, after the ship was already in Egyptian waters, it tried to break the blockade and sail into Gaza. The navy again contacted the ship and warned it to turn around.
"They told us that they're determined to get to Gaza and that they do not plan to stop," explained a senior naval officer involved in the operation. "We told them that we plan to stop them if they break the blockade. They explained that they don't plan to stop. They continued, and we stopped them."
Three of them [the eighteen passengers] - two Indian nationals and one Briton - were taken to Ben Gurion Airport, while the remainder of the crew, from Lebanon and Syria, were transferred to their countries via the Kuneitra border terminal.
On Thursday night, the IDF coordinator of military activities in the Palestinian territories ordered the transfer to Gaza of thousands of blood units carried on the ship in order to ease the humanitarian situation in the Strip. The blood was transferred via the Erez border crossing.
Although the navy found no weapons or other contraband on board this ship, hopefully, this event demonstrates a consistent, stricter Israeli policy regarding her sovereignty over Gaza's coastal waters and ships bound for Gaza.
Wednesday, February 4. 2009
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During Israel's Operation Cast Lead, this blog cited Hamas [ here and here], for theft of food and supplies meant for Gaza civilians. The Jerusalem Post now reports that UN spokesman Chris Gunness announced that Hamas police seized thousands of blankets and food parcels meant for needy Gaza residents:
Gunness said Hamas police raided a UN warehouse in Gaza City, snatching 3,500 blankets and over 400 food parcels - supplied meant for 500 Palestinian families. He said the incident took place on Tuesday evening, and that it marked the first time Hamas had seized UN aid.
In a statement released Wednesday, UNRWA condemned the theft "in the strongest terms," and demanded that it be "returned immediately." The statement added that the organization "has a strict system of monitoring aid delivery and ensuring that its assistance reaches only the intended beneficiaries," and that officials were present "taking all possible steps to avoid its diversion"...
Israeli officials have charged that the group routinely confiscates supplies meant for needy Gazans...
Earlier in the week, meanwhile, former UN and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees chief attorney James Lindsay alleged that the organization does little to check whether its staff or clients are terrorists.
The issue, Lindsay wrote in a 67-page critique of the organization, is not intention but oversight.
"UNRWA has taken very few steps to detect and eliminate terrorists from the ranks of its staff or its beneficiaries, and no steps at all to prevent members of terrorist organizations such as Hamas from joining its staff," he wrote.
UNRWA said in response that its staff were prohibited from any political involvement.
Tuesday, February 3. 2009
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The Jerusalem Post reports that the IAF struck targets in Rafah as well as several smuggling tunnels along the Philadelphi Corridor this afternoon and evening.
Israel Air Force jets bombed tunnels along the Philadelphi Corridor and other Hamas targets throughout the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, in response to the firing of a Grad-model Katyusha rocket into Ashkelon earlier in the day.
The rocket struck in a residential area near the city's sports stadium, damaging homes and vehicles and sending three people into shock.
An air raid siren rang out across the city in the seconds before the attack, sending residents fleeing for their safe rooms and bomb shelters.
After the rocket struck, the IDF warned residents of Gazan Rafah to leave their homes.
The recorded messages, in Arabic, said that people who worked in the tunnels, lived near them or provided logistical assistance to terrorists should evacuate the area immediately, residents said.
Around 6 p.m., IAF jets struck back, bombing five weapons smuggling tunnels as well as a Hamas outpost.
19 rockets and 12 mortar shells had been fired at Israel since the conclusion of the offensive.
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In 1999, then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak's government opened a "safe passage route" between Gaza and Judea. Detailed security arrangements were worked out, with much fan-fare. These arrangements immediately proved to be ineffective.
Now, as his fortunes fade with elections but a week away, Barak has suggested he intends to repeat his mistake if elected. Here is Barak's plan to connect Gaza to Judea by tunnel:
The tunnel would create territorial continuity allowing for the establishment of a Palestinian Authority-led Arab state in both Gaza and areas east of the 1949 armistice line, he explained.
In an elections conference held at Ben-Gurion University, Barak told students that a tunnel from the city of Beit Hanoun in Gaza to the town of Dura near Hevron would cost two or three billion dollars, an amount he termed "reasonable". The PA would be allowed to make free use of the tunnel, he said.
Based on past experience, this tunnel would be used for smuggling weapons and terrorists from one side to the other. Besides being a very bad idea, I can also think of a lot of better ways to spend "two or three billion dollars".
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The Jerusalem Post has reported that Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu promised that a government under his leadership would topple Hamas on the Gaza Strip in a tour of Ashkelon after Tuesday morning Grad bombing. Netanyahu further noted that "Tzipi Livni and the people of Kadima scoffed at the predictions regarding rocket fire..."
The Jerusalem Post article further reports former IDF chief of staff and Likud candidate Moshe Ya'alon's Gaza comments to a panel on terrorism at the Herzliya Conference:
Israel's withdrawals from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon were construed as "victories to Jihad."
"History has taught us that capitulating to terror only invites more terror," he said. "In the case of Israel, steadfastness against terror also includes standing firm, without discussing any territorial concessions. We have learned that our concessions over the past 15 years have brought upon us only more terror, rockets and bloodshed."
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