Why Sharon Quit Likud to Form a New Party

IRIS readers got a heads-up about this possibility on Sept. 22:

The question seems to be whether he will form a new party if rejected by the Likud.

Sharon Leaving Likud to Form Centrist Party

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will announce on Monday that he intends to quit the Likud and form a new centrist political party, sources close to Sharon said on Sunday.

Sharon is to visit President Moshe Katsav on Monday and ask him to dissolve the Knesset. This would set off a process that would lead to elections in 90 days, unless an MK succeeds in forming a new coalition within the next three weeks.

Sharon Destroys Another of His Works: The Likud

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has announced he is quitting the party he is credited with founding 32 years ago, and will start a new one. Approximately a dozen Likud MKs will apparently join him.

Why would Sharon step down from the Likud after recently winning the Likud primaries? Sharon's win was far from a mandate, as I noted on Sept. 27:

No sitting Prime Minister has ever been rejected by an Israeli party before. Ariel Sharon has just come the closest.

As I have written since August, the battle over the disengagement was not about Gaza itself. It was clear to almost everyone that Jews would be forced to leave Gaza eventually. The fight was about how much of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) will be part of the next "disengagement." (See this article for context: The Orange Camp Has Won) The Likud rebels, while technically beaten by Sharon in the last round, have won the larger battle. Sharon was technically the head of the party, but had no mandate to pursue additional unpopular withdrawals, which are part of his strategy, despite his denials.

Sharon is pushing for a unilateral definition of Israel's boundaries and realizes that unless they are deep and painful, the world will not accept them. The Likud rebels define "deep and painful" as dangerous to Israel's security. The PLO has never deviated from its historical Phased Plan for the Destruction of Israel in which Phase One is to pressure Israel to volunteer from as much of Israel as possible. Phase Two is to use that territory as a launching point for a complete destruction. The fact that Judea and Samaria contain the strategic high ground overlooking the dense concentation of Israel's population and industrial base (see this crucial map) adds to the tension.

The Peretz victory, and the resulting oppositional stance of Labor, was just the straw that broke the camel's back.

Update: For more details, see the excellent summary at Soccer Dad. His first link, to IsraellyCool, is highly recommended.

Thanks to Bloggin' Outloud for publicizing this entry.