Prediction Confirmed

Exactly as predicted an hour before the surprise news conference, Ehud Olmert has announced the inevitable. He will not run in the Kadima primaries that he is forecast to lose anyway. This will enable him to procrastinate and remain Prime Minister for the longest amount of time feasible (conceivably, until March 2009).

Ironically, he is preening that he is doing this for the good of the country, even though he fought bitterly against the scheduling of the Kadima primary that has become the catalyst for his exit.

The beginning of Olmert's announcement was a summary of his accomplishments as Prime Minister, including, ironically, taking credit for the peaceful situation in the north of the country. Hezbollah has seized de facto control of Lebanon, and Olmert's requested UN "disarmament force" has resulted in an inventory of several times the pre-war missile stockpile aimed at Israel.

PM announces he will resign after Kadima elects new leader

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held a special press conference on Wednesday at 8 p.m. where he announced he will not run in the Kadima primary scheduled to take place in September.

Olmert said he would resign from office upon selection of a successor, and would allow his successor to attempt to form a coalition.

The premier lashed out at his political adversaries without naming any of them - either from Kadima or other parties - personally.

Olmert opened his speech by expressing his pride to be a citizen of Israel: "As a citizen in a democracy I have always believed that when a person is elected prime minister in Israel, even those who opposed him in the ballot want him to succeed....

The winner in the Kadima primary will have until October 26 to submit his new government for approval by President Shimon Peres.

In case the elected leader fails, the president customarily grants another 90 days to form a government; after the 90 days are through, in case no coalition is formed, a general election is scheduled, thus potentially allowing Olmert to remain in power until March 2009.

After the primary Olmert will remain in office as prime minister of a transitional government, until his successor in Kadima manages to forge a new coalition or until general elections are held.

Four days ago, other bloggers called Shimon Peres' comment that there was no chance for peace with the Palestinians a "flying pig moment." My prediction was:

Don't put too much stock in this 'flying pigs' moment. Shimon Peres will revert back to form after a good night's rest

Here's the inevitable retraction:

Peres denies said no chance of peace with Palestinians

President Mahmoud Abbas received on Sunday a telephone call from Israeli President Shimon Peres.

Israeli President denied what some of the media reported on his tongue, especially with regard to President Abbas.

Peres also expressed his regret in this regard, confirmed that he was committed to the peace process and he has not changed his position on this matter.

One month ago, on the day Israel approved the delivery of a Jordanian weapons shipment to the Palestinian Authority (including two million bullets), I wrote:

How many Jews (and Arabs) has Olmert just consigned to be murdered?

Today there is documentation of the first murder from that weapons cache:

The terrorists who killed Ido Zoldan near Kedumim in the West Bank last month used weapons the PA received from Jordan with Israel's approval, a government official said Monday.

The three members of the terrorist cell were members of the PA security forces.

This prophetic Dry Bones cartoon was used to illustrate that entry:

Two years ago, I predicted the obvious regarding the consequences of the overwhelming leftist bias in mainstream news coverage:

My prediction is that the main result will be an acceleration of the mainstream media's erosion of credibility and therefore, its audience.

Here is more confirmation from today's news:

The Audit Bureau of Circulations released circulation numbers for more than 700 daily newspapers this morning for the six-month period ending September 2007. Of the top 25 papers in daily circulation (see chart, separate story), only four showed gains.

For The New York Times, daily circulation fell 4.51% to 1,037,828 and Sunday plunged 7.59% to 1,500,394, at least partly due to a price increase.

Daily circulation at The Washington Post was down 3.2% to 635,087 and Sunday was down 3.9% to 894,428.

Daily circulation at The Boston Globe tumbled 6.6% to 360,695 and Sunday fell about the same, 6.5% to 548,906.

What is important to note is that normal businesses have a 'bad year' if they do not continually grow by 5-6% annually. This often brings immediate management consequences. In the case of newspapers, however, the solution is quite obvious (stop the incessant propaganda), but leftists apparently have their hearts set on going down with the ship.

June 18: Defense Minister Ehud Barak vowed a full-scale invasion of Gaza to "crush Hamas"

September 12: Ehud Barak: "We'll announce that every Kassam is an hour of blackout. That way, whoever launches the Kassam knows he's cutting the power."

October 26: Israel does not plan to cut the power supply in response to each rocket fired at Israel, but will gradually reduce Gaza's dependency on Israel for electricity. Gaza's population uses about 200 megawatts of electricity, of which 120 are provided directly from Israel, 17 are from Egypt, and 65 are produced locally....The first sanctions will be implemented in the coming days, with electricity supply being disrupted during the evening hours for periods between 15 minutes to an hour each time.

Of course, on June 18, IRIS was nearly alone in analyzing that Ehud Barak's bluster was simply "talk tough to appease the locals" (New Defense Minister Barak Dusts off 'Really Really Hard' Doctrine). All that will occur is the gradual increase of local and Egyptian-supplied power, plus many millions of Western taxpayer dollars for electricity projects that will be stolen in Palestinian graft.

Two days before Shimon Peres became President of Israel, I predicted:

Releasing terrorist murderers will be easier in the future now that Shimon Peres has been made President by Olmert and company. Leftists don't need to tone down their true desires when they no longer face reelection. See, for example: Jimmy Carter, Avraham Burg and Ramsey Clark.

Yesterday Shimon Peres has done just that: commuted the sentences of five Arab terrorist murderers of a random fifteen year-old. No decision could be more politically unpopular in Israel, which has a large number of Arabs ready to seize any opportunity to murder a Jew for jihad. But he doesn't have to worry about that any more, because he is now completely unaccountable to the electorate. The Presidency of Israel has now joined the Supreme Court as another branch of government now functioning to subvert the power of the Israeli people (see here for a must-read published today on the Supreme Court's constitutional coup). Kadima and Labor, who knew exactly why they gave Peres the pardon power, can feign ignorance:

President Shimon Peres defended his decision Wednesday to cut short the life sentences of the five murderers of teenager Danny Katz, telling critics - including Katz's family - that his decision was based entirely on legal considerations. A statement from Beit Hanassi read: "The president understands the pain of the Katz family, whose son Danny was murdered by evildoers. In accordance with the procedure in effect since the day the country was established, the president is responsible for determining the commutation of a life sentence, and that is after the committee for reviewing life sentences, headed by a judge, submits its detailed recommendations to the Justice Ministry."

Those judges are also appointed by the Leftist oligopoly that rules Israel. Of course, those 'detailed recommendations' will not be available for the public to see.

Peres's comments were in response to claims that his decision was based on political concerns, in an attempt to bring Israeli Arabs into the Kadima-Labor coalition.

Earlier Wednesday, Katz's mother blasted the president's decision and bemoaned the lack of importance awarded to life sentences in the state of Israel.

"The second Peres becomes president, he rushes to release murderers - five murderers, savages, who killed an innocent boy outside his home. We're getting calls from all over the country. They're all saying, 'Better [former president Moshe] Katsav than someone who frees murderers,'" Mira Katz said.

Katz's brother also took to the airwaves to slam the decision, saying that they had heard as far back as two months ago that at least one Arab MK was advocating the fives' release.

Why, exactly, would a Knesset member desire the release of terrorists? Why would his constituency want such a thing?

Danny Katz was 15 in 1983 when he left his Denya neighborhood house in Haifa and never returned. His body was discovered in a cave not far from Sakhnin four days after his disappearance. The five suspects were first indicted in Haifa District Court in 1984 and charged with premeditated murder, conspiracy to commit a crime and kidnapping with intent to murder.

In October 1985, all five - Ahmad Kozli, Samir Hanama, Fathi Guama, Ali Gnaim and Ataf Sabihi were convicted of all the charges against them and sentenced to life plus 27 years in prison each. In the nineties, the five repeatedly requested a retrial, claiming that their confessions were made under physical and psychological pressure.

In 1999, then-Supreme Court president Aharon Barak granted the five the long-awaited retrial, but that resulted in a verdict, handed down in 2002, which upheld their previous conviction.

There is one possibly positive development that can come from this: non-Leftist parties should make adoption of the death penalty for terrorist murderers a campaign issue. It would be wildly popular, particularly given the added reason that death is the only legal impediment to release by President Peres.

See also: Suspicion: Peres Paid for Arab Vote with Leniency to Arab Killers

This is exactly as I predicted when I called the "international disarmament force" an obvious fraud from the moment it was proposed by Israel's bankrupt leadership:

Illegal arms traffic into Lebanon across the Syrian border, mainly to Hezbollah fighters, is reported to be taking place on a regular basis, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday. In a report to the U.N. Security Council, Ban said news of arms shipments, including "detailed and substantial" reports from Israel, and other nations, showed the need for a team he was sending to propose ways of monitoring of the border.

"Such transfers are alleged to be taking place on a regular basis," Ban wrote. "I am deeply worried that the political crisis in Lebanon may be deepened and exacerbated" by arms smuggling. He also said that there was a growing threat from armed "extremist Islamist groups" who have found safe haven in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

Not to worry, though. I'm sure Israel's leaders are preparing for the next Lebanon war as diligently as they did prior to the previous one.

Israel paid $100 million to Abbas to "fight Hamas." Guess where the money went?

I have been comparing the Israeli leadership to the lovable chowderheaded Wise Men of Chelm, but I now think this is unfair.

To the Chelmites.

Israeli Diplomat: "Abu Mazen Lied to Us Thrice"

Abu Mazen's third lie was revealed in the Maariv newspaper yesterday (Thursday). The paper reported that tax monies Israel handed over to Abbas, based on a clear understanding that they would not reach the Hamas government, in fact made their way to Hamas.

Abbas, viewed as a "moderate" by the United States and the international community, "is not trustworthy," the Israeli diplomat concluded.

However, when he meets with Olmert this Sunday, PA sources say he plans to ask the Israeli leader not to torpedo the PA unity government's activities - even though it was conceived in contrast with Abu Mazen's promise to Israel. He also intends to request of Olmert not to pressure the international community to continue its economic siege on the PA - despite the fact that previous monies given to PA were given to Hamas.

Abbas reportedly plans to say that if Olmert does not come through on the above requests, the ceasefire in Gaza will be in jeopardy. Israeli sources say the ceasefire is already all but non-existent, and that in any event, Hamas is massively building up its arms arsenal for a confrontation with Israel.

Clearly, this Israeli official is not an IRIS reader, or he could have read a year ago how Israel would fund Hamas. He could have also read that the universally reported "Hamas-Fatah Civil War" would probably be revealed as a scam.

Update: Hamas confirms the news.

That impending Palestinian civil war that was ubiquitously reported certainly seems to have been resolved quite easily in the end. We'll never know for sure, but could it be that it was all a scam as IRIS was alone in predicting?

I wonder if Abbas will return the $100 million to Israel, plus the far greater amount from the US taken on the pretense of fighting Hamas?

National Unity Talks Reach Agreement to Fulfill Five Goals, Including Formation of a United Resistance

Two years ago, I warned that the impending election of Kadima would exacerbate Israel's second-largest problem--the nefarious control of the economy by the small group of "branja" families. They exploit their oligopolistic position to make rules to further consolidate their control.

Upon their election, I predicted:

When Kadima says "trust us" and doesn't reveal any policies, it means they are the chosen favorites of the 5 Families who will do their bidding. Israel is heading for long-term disaster by placing these foxes, along with Peretz's Labor, in the henhouse rules' committee.

Now it appears that 86% of Israelis agree that the super-wealthy are gaining control of the government. Although this poll may appear to express attitudes of simple class warfare (which I generally oppose), I believe it represents some understanding of the "brancha" problem. Unfortunately, the 5 Families essentially control Israel's news media so it is difficult for the public to identify the genuine culprit.

Almost one year ago, I correctly predicted that Olmert's announced strategy of financially isolating the Palestinian Authority after the Hamas landslide victory was a lie. Not only that, but Israel itself would continue to pay Hamas, after a delay while Israeli public opinion got over the shock of Hamas' victory. Hamas, as everyone knows, is committed to the genocide of Jews and all infidels.

I believe I was the only commentator who forecasted this:

Money for the Palestinian Authority is still being placed in escrow, meaning that the funds are being paid by Israel, not available to Israel in the future, and are legally intended for use by the Palestinian Authority. If a company pays money into a retirement fund for a worker for access at a future time, that is still considered an employee asset. There are many scenarios in which the Palestinians may access the funds. Here are some: "humanitarian" purposes, Israeli court order, international court order, American pressure and "carrots" for various insincere public expressions in English.

The details are exactly as predicted:

Israel to Release Frozen Tax Funds to PA

....The money, according to the official, is meant to go for "humanitarian purposes"

Another reason listed is that this will "strengthen Abbas against Hamas." This despite the fact that only last week Abbas called for Palestinians to shoot Israelis.

Why do I point out my correct predictions? Because I am trying to build credibility for my next forecast: massive, simultaneous nuclear strikes on the West unlike we wake up and defend ourselves against the jihad. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction does not work against those who welcome death.

God forbid.

Although Israel's political leaders are claiming a comprehensive cease-fire was signed with the Palestinians, Israeli security officials have claimed that a truce was only agreed to regarding rocket attacks. Of course, they point out that weapons smuggling and military armament are a given, and that Israel assumes that the enemy will be much better armed when the cease-fire is dropped in the future. Here are terror leaders saying they either do not recognize that cease-fire or plan to use the time to prepare for the next round through rearmament and training.

In any case, "volleys of rockets" have continued for two days, which initially caught Sderot residents by surprise:

We were all outside because we thought the firing had ended,? said Sderot resident Odelia Peretz. ?We thought the truce would hold. Children were panicking, there was hysteria

This has not stopped Olmert from making wild promises listing detailed concessions should the Palestinians endorse a similar commitment to refrain from terror in the future. Israel has, however, issued a security directive not to fire on the Palestinian rocket crews.

Khaled Abu Toameh points out that Abbas is responding with hackneyed Arafat boilerplate about how he would love to enforce the cease-fire if only he could get more Western funding and arms. Israel is clearly continuing its diabolical plan of getting the Palestinians to laugh themselves to death (in the words of Michael Freund).

Will Abbas Enforce a Cease-Fire? (Khaled Abu Toameh)

Abbas has control over at least 45,000 members of a dozen or so security forces in Gaza, some of whom were trained by American and European security experts. This is in addition to thousands of gunmen and activists belonging to his Fatah party. Hamas, by contrast, has less than 5,000 militiamen, who are not as effective as Abbas' policemen and security agents. Abbas appears to be comfortable with the image of the weak leader low on funds and resources. His message to the outside world is: If I only had more weapons, policemen, and money, I'd be able to move against the terrorists. This was the same excuse that Arafat used whenever he was asked why he was not doing anything to stop suicide bombings against Israel.

Millions of dollars continue to pour into Abbas' office almost on a weekly basis. The U.S. has also been arming and funding Abbas. Yet what the Palestinians need is not more rifles - which they never use to stop Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or other militias anyway - but good governance and credible leaders. The only way to bring about regime change in the Palestinian territories is by exerting pressure on Abbas to reform his Fatah party, which he will only do when he feels that he is under pressure from donors. He will also only start moving against the Kassam rocket squads and weapon-smuggling when someone bangs on the table and demands immediate action.

Interestingly, Olmert's speech is another IRIS 'Prediction Confirmed' from February when I immediately called a fraud Olmert's policy of cutting off Israeli payments to the Palestinian Authority because of the landslide election victory of Hamas. Instead, as excerpted below, the funds would merely be delayed and presented later ("He stressed that if the Palestinians responded, Israel would...release Palestinian tax revenues held in Israel since Hamas's victory in last January's elections.")

Hamas: "We'll Nuke You." Israel: "We'll Keep Paying You"

.... 2) Money for the Palestinian Authority is still being placed in escrow, meaning that the funds are being paid by Israel, not available to Israel in the future, and are legally intended for use by the Palestinian Authority. If a company pays money into a retirement fund for a worker for access at a future time, that is still considered an employee asset. There are many scenarios in which the Palestinians may access the funds. Here are some: "humanitarian" purposes, Israeli court order, international court order, American pressure and "carrots" for various insincere public expressions in English.

See also: What is Olmert Smoking and Where Can I Get Some?